My Poll Takeaways as Voting Begins
Analyzing the election, controversial policies, and pumpkin spice lattes
Thank you for your interest in TennSight, a new Substack where I will provide you with the insight you need to ensure that the votes you cast for elected officials align with your values. Today, I want to delve into the results of the latest Beacon Poll, a quarterly statewide poll that covers elections and key policy issues in the state. This will likely be the last statewide poll conducted before Election Day.
The Presidential. The most interesting news is how much better Kamala Harris is performing versus President Biden (+7 points). While this won’t make a dent in Trump’s forthcoming landslide victory in the Volunteer State (he’s beating her by 21 points), such a change is indicative of how close the election will be in swing states. The Democrats must be breathing a sigh of relief that they were able to swap out the top of the ticket, else most observers agree that this election would be a GOP rout. Even voters in a heavily red state like Tennessee think this will be a close race, with 50% saying Trump will win and 40% thinking Harris will.
The Senate. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is going to similarly cruise to victory. She’s gained ground since the last Beacon Poll in July and is currently polling 23 points ahead of her opponent, state Rep. Gloria Johnson. There are, however, more undecided voters in this race (+6%) than the presidential matchup. This isn’t too surprising, as even in high-profile Senate races, people tend to be less opinionated than they are about who will be the next president.
Key Policies. While I’ll occasionally get into the most hot-button policies impacting elections (read: illegal immigration for Republicans and abortion for Democrats this year), I think it’s important to dive below the surface and look at where Tennesseans stand on less-talked about policies. Two in particular stood out to me in the latest Beacon Poll.
First are tariffs, which frankly are just taxes on imported goods that will make inflation worse. They aren’t free market at all. But interestingly, because of China’s unfair trade practices and Trump’s push for tariffs to “level the playing field,” 51% of Republicans actually support them, while just a third don’t. Compare that to Democrats: only 26% support tariffs while 56% oppose them. This is one instance where historic views on the role of government intervention in the market have flipped.
The second is a recent addition to Harris’ platform: a tax on unrealized capital gains. Essentially, this would tax people for increases in value on things like their homes or stocks that they haven’t yet sold. Despite a populist wave that might lead one to think there could be support for this idea, 70% of Tennesseans oppose it. Her plan is even underwater by 41 points with her fellow Democrats (58% oppose, 17% support). Even if Harris wins and the Democrats gain a majority in Congress come January, I don’t think this policy will ever see the light of day. And that’s a good thing.
On My Soapbox. The Beacon Poll often tosses in some random pop culture questions, and this time, the poll asked Tennesseans how they felt about pumpkin spice lattes. I have to say, as someone who knows full well that pumpkins aren’t spicy, I’m disappointed that about 33% of you actually like these things, equal to the 32% of us who rightfully hate them. I’m no fan of big government, but I wonder: is there some kind of Consumer Protection Act violation here for falsely claiming that something so bland as a pumpkin could ever be described as spicy?